"Retention is usually a function of onboarding quality, not product changes"
Evidence from the Archive
GrowthHackers
LogMeIn's aha moment was the first remote control session, which required going to a different computer -- the most...
LogMeIn's aha moment was the first remote control session, which required going to a different computer -- the most complex activation funnel Ellis has ever seen
Coined the term 'growth hacking,' invented the most widely used PMF survey, was head of growth at Dropbox and on the founding team of LogMeIn ($4B exit) -- one of the most influential growth practitioners in tech history. Their core argument: Activation should be experience-based and intentional, not usage-based. Your activation metric should describe an experience, not a usage count.
The evidence is specific: LogMeIn's aha moment was the first remote control session, which required going to a different computer -- the most complex activation funnel Ellis has ever seen. Furthermore, a mobile security company moved from 7% to 40% on the PMF survey by repositioning on antivirus and onboarding users to that specific experience first. At a game company, Ellis made the games themselves the advertisements, pre-delivering the aha moment before signup -- the same strategy YouTube later used.
In Sean Ellis's own words: "I don't think there's necessarily one exact right answer of what is that aha moment. There might be two or three different things. I think it's that intentionality about picking something that's experience-based." (On choosing experience-based activation metrics over usage counts.)
GrowthHackers
Dropbox: Ellis helped build growth on top of confirmed PMF, not before it
LogMeIn tested below 40%, repositioned on antivirus, streamlined onboarding, hit 40% in two weeks and 60% in six months -- eventually a $4B+ exit
Coined 'growth hacking,' led early growth at Dropbox, Eventbrite, and LogMeIn (sold for $4B+). Developed the 40% 'very disappointed' PMF test now used by thousands of startups. Their core argument: Only invest in growth after achieving product-market fit -- growing before PMF is wasteful and can actively prevent you from finding fit.
The evidence is specific: LogMeIn tested below 40%, repositioned on antivirus, streamlined onboarding, hit 40% in two weeks and 60% in six months -- eventually a $4B+ exit. Furthermore, dropbox: Ellis helped build growth on top of confirmed PMF, not before it. The 'value delivery engine' framework maps onboarding, aha moment, engagement loops, and referral into a flywheel that only works once you understand what users value.
In Sean Ellis's own words: "The question is, how would you feel if you could no longer use this product? Once you got a high enough percentage of users saying they'd be very disappointed, most of those products did pretty well. If you felt too low, those products tended to suffer." (Introducing the PMF survey and the empirical pattern behind the 40% threshold.)
GrowthHackers
YC-backed companies in Silicon Valley formed the original benchmarking cohort that produced the 40% threshold
Ellis ran the survey at a company post-Dropbox and got 7% 'very disappointed,' demonstrating how the test can surface harsh truths early
Coined the term 'growth hacking,' developed the most widely used PMF survey in the startup world, was head of growth at Dropbox and on the founding team of LogMeIn ($4B exit). Their core argument: The 'very disappointed' survey is the most reliable leading indicator of PMF. Ask users how they'd feel if the product disappeared; if 40%+ say 'very disappointed,' you have signal.
The evidence is specific: Ellis ran the survey at a company post-Dropbox and got 7% 'very disappointed,' demonstrating how the test can surface harsh truths early. Furthermore, yC-backed companies in Silicon Valley formed the original benchmarking cohort that produced the 40% threshold. Nubank adopted the Ellis survey globally but adjusted the threshold to 50% in Brazil to compensate for cultural politeness bias.
In Sean Ellis's own words: "It's a simple question that helps you figure out, does anyone consider your product a must-have. The question is, how would you feel if you could no longer use this product?" (Defining the core PMF survey mechanism and its purpose.)
GrowthHackers
At Nubank, every new product must reach 50% 'very disappointed' threshold before launch, even at the feature level
At Dropbox, the NSM was tied to files stored and shared, reflecting the core value of easy file access
Coined the term 'growth hacking,' led early growth at Dropbox, LogMeIn, and Eventbrite before they became household names. Author of Hacking Growth. Their core argument: A single north star metric that captures units of value delivery, chosen by team consensus in 30 minutes.
The evidence is specific: At Dropbox, the NSM was tied to files stored and shared, reflecting the core value of easy file access. Furthermore, at Nubank, every new product must reach 50% 'very disappointed' threshold before launch, even at the feature level. Ellis's value delivery engine maps onboarding, aha moment, engagement loops, and referral into a single flywheel around the NSM.
In Sean Ellis's own words: "When I think about a north star metric, that's what I'm thinking about is something that reflects how many people are coming in and experiencing that product-market fit experience, whatever that is. And it's not just me telling them, 'Here's what your north star metric should be.' It's that ultimately the team needs to decide that together." (Defining the north star metric as a value delivery measure and arguing for team consensus.)
GrowthHackers
Lookout (mobile security): moved from 7% to 40% very-disappointed in two weeks with zero product changes --...
Xobni: Sean originally created the 'very disappointed' question because senior management users were never 'satisfied' with anything -- flipping to 'what would you lose' got honest answers
Coined 'growth hacking,' invented the ICE framework, developed the Sean Ellis test used by thousands of founders, and was head of growth at Dropbox and Eventbrite and on the founding team of LogMeIn ($4B+ exit) -- one of the most influential growth operators in startup history. Their core argument: Retention is usually a function of onboarding quality, not product changes -- find your must-have users first.
The evidence is specific: Lookout (mobile security): moved from 7% to 40% very-disappointed in two weeks with zero product changes -- repositioned on antivirus and streamlined onboarding to deliver 'you're now protected' as the first experience, eventually reaching unicorn status. Furthermore, xobni: Sean originally created the 'very disappointed' question because senior management users were never 'satisfied' with anything -- flipping to 'what would you lose' got honest answers. Dropbox: Sean used the test there to understand which users were must-have before investing in growth, creating the foundation for their famous referral program.
In Sean Ellis's own words: "It's usually much more function of onboarding to the right user experience than it is about the kind of the tactical things that people try to do to improve retention." (Arguing that retention is mostly an onboarding problem.)